Water FractalTier 1
at Illusive Webcam Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 13.2% | 7 | 3-2-2 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 52.4% | +1.2 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 12 | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 51.0% | +0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 9 | 3-4-2 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 47.9% | -1.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.7 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 51.9% | +1.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 47.6% | -1.6 |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.9% | +2.9 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Slimes | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Water Slice & Dice | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
Decklists · 12 from this event
The 12 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fire Resonance Bauble, Chill to the Bone, Quicksilver Grail. Losers more often ran: Lost in Thought, Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa, Nullifying Lantern.
Banned
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Lost in Thought | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 4 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Torpid Fractal | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wildheart Lyre | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |